Weekly market news: 12 May 2025
Markets head into the week awaiting fresh clues on inflation and growth, as central banks tread carefully amid mixed data and ongoing trade uncertainties. Investors will be watching US consumer prices, UK inflation and key earnings results – all against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions that continue to fuel market swings.
Last week saw the US Federal Reserve hold rates steady, citing persistent inflation risks, while UK consumer confidence slipped further as households grappled with rising costs. The Bank of England also decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points – the first cut in two years.
Meanwhile, trade talks between the US and China made progress on Monday 12 May – with markets already reacting positively. The two sides agreed to cut tariffs on each other’s goods by 115% for 90 days, starting from Wednesday 14 May.
Coming up this week
Monday
- Eurozone trade balance (March) – difference between exports and imports across member states
- US wholesale inventories (April) – measure of business stock levels
Tuesday
- US consumer price index (April) – monthly change in prices paid by consumers
- Eurozone industrial production (March) – output of factories and utilities
- UK GDP (March, preliminary) – early estimate of economic growth
Wednesday
- UK consumer price index (April) – latest measure of UK inflation
- US retail sales (April) – total spending at shops and online
- China retail sales (April) – indicator of consumer demand
Thursday
- European Central Bank (ECB) meeting minutes – insight into ECB policymakers’ discussions
- US producer price index (April) – wholesale price changes
- US initial jobless claims – weekly snapshot of new unemployment benefit applications
Friday
- UK retail sales (April) – monthly change in consumer spending
- US industrial production (April) – factory output levels
- US Michigan consumer sentiment (May, preliminary) – survey of consumer outlook
What you might’ve missed last week
Global: The US and China concluded another round of talks with few breakthroughs, leaving tariffs in place and markets on edge. Oil prices rose on supply concerns, while safe-haven assets held firm.
US: The Fed kept borrowing costs unchanged, stressing that inflation remains too high for cuts. US job openings fell slightly but remained near historic highs.
Why it matters
Inflation data across the US, UK, and Eurozone will be crucial for central banks deciding whether to pivot or hold firm. A hotter-than-expected US CPI on Tuesday could delay Fed rate cuts, while UK and Eurozone figures will shape market expectations for summer easing.
Earnings season continues to roll on, but macroeconomic releases are likely to dominate headlines and drive volatility. Investors should stay nimble as they digest each data point and policy update.
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