Weekly market news: 23 June 2025
Markets enter the final week of June with central banks and summer data in focus. That’s following last week’s UK inflation surprise and ongoing tensions in the Middle East that have led to more attention shifting to the prices of oil and so-called safehavens like gold.
On Wednesday, the Bank of England publishes its latest minutes, offering fresh insight into policymakers’ views. In the US, traders will zero in on Friday’s core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred gauge, while flash PMI readings and eurozone data will round out a week of important economic releases.
Geopolitical risk remains elevated: tensions in the Middle East have pushed Brent crude into the high-$70s, while currency markets have seen volatility as investors reassess safe havens. A softer dollar has given a boost to commodity prices and reduced pressure on exporters in the US.
Coming up this week
Each of these events has been selected for its relevance to central bank decisions or its impact on market sentiment.
Monday 23 June
- Japan industrial production (May) – monthly change in factory output, offering a barometer of global supply-chain health.
- Eurozone unemployment rate (May) – percentage of the labour force out of work, signalling underlying economic resilience or weakness.
- Fed Governor Daly speech – remarks from a key Fed policymaker on inflation and growth outlook.
Tuesday 24 June
- Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress – the first of two days of testimony. This will give lawmakers an idea of the Fed’s outlook on inflation.
- Eurozone CPI (June flash) – early read on consumer price changes across the euro area, crucial for ECB policy timing.
- UK public sector net borrowing (May) – the gap between public spending and revenue, an important gauge of fiscal health.
Wednesday 25 June
- Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress – the second of two days of testimony. This will give lawmakers an idea of the Fed’s outlook on inflation.
- UK retail sales (May) – change in consumer spending in stores and online, offering insight into household demand.
- US new home sales (May) – annualised number of newly constructed homes sold, a forward-looking indicator of the housing market.
Thursday 26 June
- Eurozone composite PMI (June final) – combined services and manufacturing activity, confirming flash estimates for the euro area.
- US initial jobless claims – weekly measure of new unemployment benefit applications, reflecting labour-market momentum.
- UK GfK consumer confidence (July) – survey capturing household sentiment ahead of the peak summer season.
Friday 27 June
- US core PCE price index (May) – the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, key to rate-cut expectations.
- Japan CPI (June flash) – preliminary measure of consumer price changes in Japan, guiding BoJ policy outlook.
- Eurozone GDP (Q1 final) – confirmed first-quarter growth rate, finalising preliminary estimates.
What you might’ve missed last week
UK inflation surprises: May headline CPI rose to 3.5% year-on-year, driven by energy and services costs, prompting markets to push back expectations for an August rate cut.
Bank of England keeps rates steady: The Bank of England voted on Thursday last week to keep the base rate steady at 4.25%.
Middle East tensions: Renewed flare-ups have kept Brent crude in the headlines, adding to cost pressures for consumers and producers. At the moment, tensions are high around the possibility of the Iranian regime closing the Strait of Hormuz – a key international trade route for oil.
US dollar volatility: The dollar weakened slightly on softer inflation data, supporting commodity prices but adding uncertainty for dollar-denominated asset holders.
Eurozone PMIs: Flash June PMIs showed mixed results – services holding up, manufacturing still contracting – reinforcing ECB’s cautious path.
Fed holds: In June, the Fed left rates at 5.25% and signalled patience, awaiting more evidence that inflation is firmly under control.
Why it matters
A week packed with data and central bank insights will test expectations for monetary easing. UK household spending and eurozone price reads will guide the Bank of England and ECB, while US core PCE and jobless claims will determine whether the Fed can pivot later this year. Amid elevated geopolitical risks, any surprises in inflation or activity could trigger volatility across bonds, currencies and equities.
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